Bottom Fishing

Last week, new home sales shockingly fell to a historic low as new and existing home prices continued to fall. While pundits across the fruited plain, including the "academics" at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, were shocked, it was unfortunately what we expected.

Efforts to fix the problem have been temporary band-aids which have had little or no effect on shifting the curve. CNBC's Larry Kudlow, joined by outstanding colleague Diana Olick, engage Brian Wesbury, economist at First Trust Advisors and A. Gary Shilling, who was spot on predicting the downfall years ago. Take listen:



Certainly, there are two schools of thought represented in this discussion, and I know who is correct. A. Gary Shilling. Wesbury thinks housing is bad, but not central to the grand economy, representing only 2% of GDP. While true, there is more to the story, commonly referred to in economics as the ripple effect. Our economy is consumer driven, and those hurt in housing have suffered impaired credit, restricting the ability to purchase big ticket items. In addition, disposable income has taken a crushing blow, leading to downturns in household expenditures, including retail and small luxury items.

Just like two years ago, rising gasoline prices, which is essentially a tax, will add to the problem. Should the price of oil remain high, any potential recovery, both in housing and in the overall economy, will be dashed.

The absorption rate for housing is abysmal and new home construction barely has a heartbeat. Inventories are sky high, and many evicted from their homes are shacking up with family and friends, creating a negative impact on the rental market.

Quantity demand is handcuffed due to the aforementioned problems. Homeowners in negative equity, or those owing more on their home than it is worth, is understated. Add in governmental regulatory intervention, which is prohibiting the market from cleansing itself, and there is no port in the storm. Statistical measurements indicate we are just over 25% through the foreclosure process.

Unfortunately, the problem extends far outside real estate. The unemployment rate is significantly higher than reported in the media, due to those no longer actively seeking employment. Until we see the job market turn around, consumer confidence, purchasing power and credit worthiness will remain a stiff headwind into both housing and and the overall economic recovery, which is slight at best at the moment.

Forget the arguement about a double dip recession, it is already in progress. Retail dining numbers have recently turned negative, as has the home price index as seen in the chart below.

CHART: BLYTIC.COM

In the housing market, government needs to get out of the way, allow the market to wring out the bad players and find a bottom to build a base off of. Of course, the answer is free market capitalism and not government intervention and influence in the marketplace.