Monday, January 26, 2009

College Footballs Most Prestigious by ESPN

After extensive research using a complex formula derived by the research team at ESPN, the network has unveiled the most prestigious college football programs in America, with the data used beginning in 1936, which is the first year a national champion was declared by The Associated Press.

It obviously can be argued the formula has flaws, but after reviewing it I think the researchers did a wonderful job evaluating the programs. The point system is elaborate, issuing points for major bowl games, Heisman winners and even deducts points for NCAA penalties.

Here in the Sunshine State, The Florida State Seminoles edged out Miami, FL as the most prestigious in the state, coming in 9th. Miami is 10th, while Florida is 15th.

Nebraska was fifth, Notre Dame fourth, Ohio State third and Southern Cal second.

Ivan Maisel gives you the breakdown of the Top 5:


The winner is the Oklahoma Sooners. My boy Bent found it necessary to celebrate the news. Boomer Sooner!

Sunday, January 25, 2009

Economic Cyanide

The scary economic times we are experiencing now has led many so called experts to predict we are in the throws a new Great Depression. I don't put much weight on these comments since about 3 economists saw the housing crisis coming, and heck, I have no idea what I am having for dinner tomorrow.

One interesting fellow in this regard is Hary Dent, investment strategist and economic futurist and author of The Roaring 2000's. Dent's stategies are quite interesting and are based primarily on demographics, where for instance, he contends that this post baby boomer generation is the first not to expand in population and thus, as spending has peaked, economic growth will contract.

One could contend that the large number of immigrants that have been pouring into this country over the last several years would be helpful in this regard. But as one of my well respected cohorts, The Wizard, accurately points out, the massive influx of low skilled, uneducated and very poorly equipped immigrants are a tremendous inventory overhang on our system, which is overwhelming our resources and is no longer manageable.

In his book The Roaring 2000's Investor Dent predicted inevitable deflation in 2009 immediately followed by a depressionary cycle. Dent recently visited with Neil Cavuto on the Fox Business Channel:



Dent is now pushing his new book The Great Depression Ahead, and projects the DOW to fall to around 3800. In an ordinary market, I would unload the truck buying the DOW at 3800.

But wait, damn it, we seem to have upcoming economic policies that will not be investor friendly, and these policies will no doubt heighten risk and limit investment.

In a special column for The Glen Beck Program titled The Looters Are Coming, Wall Street Journal senior economics writer Stephen Moore outlines the economic cyanide for us. Once again, Moore references Ayn Rand and her classic novel Atlas Shrugged. I am glad Ronald Reagan is not around to see this. Now, step away from the window ledge!

Friday, January 23, 2009

The Great American Ponzi Scheme

The unique perspective of Investors Business Daily's Pulitzer Prize winning cartoonist Michael Ramirez is once again on the pulse of America in timely fashion.

Much of the media if focusing on the abhorrent theft of fund manager Bernie Madoff, and rightly so. The scope of his fraud, inclusive of many charities and high profile investors such as Larry King, Kevin Bacon, Norman Braman (former Philadelphia Eagles owner and car dealer), Morton Zuckerman (through investment fund) and The Royal Bank of Scotland, is mind boggling.

As incredible as this is, there is another giant ponzi scheme looking to burst, and President Bush has warned us about it and requested legislation to curtail it, of which he has got none from our do nothing Congress, before the ship has left the dock. Others, such as David Walker of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation, have been sounding the alarms for quite some time.

CNBC's Jim Cramer takes a whack it. Lets see what he says:

Ladies and gentlemen, it is our own Social Security System. Estimates say about 2040 it will blow up and life as we know will never be the same. If you are under 40, I recommend you invest for retirement as if you will get nothing from the system. Caveat Emptor!

Thursday, January 22, 2009

Regression To The Mean

Lets follow the sales progression of a home in southeast Orlando and see what information we can derive from the marketplace.
In May of 1999, after 199 days on the market, this @2000 square foot home in the Southchase area of Orlando sold for $123,000. This 4 bedroom, 2 bath home, the subject of this case study, was built in 1996, features volume ceilings, interior laundry, a covered rear porch and is located on a corner lot.
Our subject property sold again in September of 2002 for $160,400 after only 17 days on the market. We note that the 2002 sale was outpacing the projected annual appreciation rate by approximately 8%, which is not alarming in a fast growing community such as Southchase.
In 2005, with the escalation of housing prices in full gear, our subject sold in June for consideration of $269,900, full asking price, after only 7 days on the market.

After some interior renovations and a couple of buckets of paint, our subject was re-listed in August of 2005 and sold after 49 days on the market for $317,500. Now that is impressive! This value is some 70% above the projected appreciation schedule, which is obviously quite risk sensitive and in my view would be cause for concern if I was a buyer.

In Central Florida, the typical annual appreciation level for single family residences in decent areas has been approximately 6.5% over the last decade and a half or so. The following shows a 6.5% annual appreciation of our subject based off the 1999 sale price:

1999---$123,000
2000---$130,995
2001---$139,509
2002---$148,578
2003---$158,235
2004---$168,521
2005---$179,475
2006---$191,140
2007---$203,564
2008---$216,796
2009---$230,888

Evaluations of market price in the housing market has many of the characteristics found in the stock market. Risk is measured by the distance from the moving average, and the first 2005 sale is at a level some 45% above the projected appreciation, which clearly would indicate a substantial level of risk. Prices could "correct" back to the projected appreciation level without violating the trend of the market.

The second sale in 2005, even with the improvements to the property, signals what technical analysis would define as a "blow off top", which is a sudden sharp rally, an explosion to the upside which occurs after a long advance. This event usually signals the total exhaustion of buyers who have used up all their buying power and leads to a sharp decline in values typically back to or slightly below the moving average levels. It is then followed by a prolonged bear market, which we are presently experiencing.
In November of 2008, I was asked to perform an appraisal assignment on this property. The indicated value came in at $215,000, which incidentally, is right on top of the indicated value the subject property should represent in 2008 following the projected path of appreciation.

Below is a chart of the median sales price of homes in data through December 2008 from The Orlando Regional Realtor Association, of which I am a member. The escalation of value above the average appreciation path beginning in 2004 is clearly evident, and that is a measurement of risk. The chart shows us how pricing has now regressed to a level that is on par or slightly below the projected path.

What does it mean? In a normal environment, the downside risk of purchasing a home today is at normal levels, and that any significant deterioration from here would be abnormal and unprecedented. The affordability factor is in the buyers favor, and with the movement by the Federal Reserve injecting capital into the system, even with the lagging indicator of job losses mounting, we should begin to see an improved market by mid 2009. What are your thoughts?

Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Raw Nerves with Captain Kirk

Quite possibly the very best guest on The Howard Stern Show is none other than William Shatner, no doubt best known for his outstanding portrayal of Captain James T. Kirk on Gene Roddenberry's Star Trek. What is not known by many is that Shatner is bust a gut funny, and his antics with Stern have always left me howling.

Shatner now has new venue to exhibit his humor in the form of an interview show on the Biography Network called Raw Nerve. Among the early guests of the program were Jon Voight, Fran Drescher and Kelsey Grammer. And...

Speaking of Howard Stern, another early guest of the new show was former porn superstar Jenna Jameson, which would be cause enough to tune it on its own. Jenna became well known for a part she had in Stern's movie Private Parts. I had occasion to first meet Jenna in 1997 and she was very nice, although only seemingly about 5'1" and 95lbs.

Without question, Shatner could not get this talk show going without having his old buddy, Leonard Nimoy, on for a visit. And that he did!
Leonard Nimoy, of course, portrayed Mr. Spock on our beloved Star Trek and has a special place in our hearts. I really enjoyed the conversation between these two. Although the segment was only a half an hour, in my mind, these two cats could discuss Star Trek for days. The expressions Shatner was hitting Mr. Spock with were killing me and seem to be hinting at the old days. I think Star Trek represents the best television has had to offer, and if I catch it while channel surfing, I stop right there.

Check out Shatner's new show, I think you will find it most enjoyable. Live Long and Prosper!

Tuesday, January 20, 2009

Keep Us Safe

There is a reason Investors Business Daily cartoonist Michael Ramirez is an Pulitzer Prize winner. If Bush was able to convey anything to Obama, I hope it is to stay vigilant against the terrorists that wish us death.

Monday, January 19, 2009

Freedom Fighters Freed!

In one of his final acts as President, George W. Bush commuted the prison sentences of Ignacio Ramos and Jose Alonso Compean, two US Border Patrol agents convicted of shooting a Mexican drug dealer.

Overzealous US Attorney and Prosecutor Johnny Sutton won the case against these men, convicting these two agents of primarily covering up information related to the shooting in the ass of the supposedly unarmed drug dealer as he fled across the Rio Grande River. As Dana Rohrabacher, R-CA, accurately assessed, Compean and Ramos were "unjustly convicted men who never should have been prosecuted in the first place." Amen to that.

Since I believe drug dealers are financing our opponents in the Global War on Terror, I wish they had killed the drug runner. In this unfortunate time of political correctness, we seem to want to favor criminals over our own patriots who risk their lives to protect our freedoms.

The case has been a hot potato since these men were imprisoned, burning up talk radio airwaves. In the time following their imprisonment, in solitary confinement I might add, the families of these men have been devastated, financially and emotionally. I know President Bush to be a fine man and I had sincerely hoped he would make this move. This was absolutely the right decision in my view. Thank You President Bush.

Sunday, January 18, 2009

Seminoles Rising

Finally, it looks like Leonard Hamilton and the Florida State Seminoles hardwood team is poised to make some real noise this season. Florida State is 15-3 after a hard fought overtime home victory over a well coached pesky Maryland squad. The 'Noles losses have come to Duke and Pittsburgh, top five teams, and at an improving Northwestern.

However, it is very clear this team is quietly learning how to win, and it may just be a team that everyone wants to avoid down the stretch. Guard Toney Douglas, pictured above, is really providing the senior leadership necessary to guide this team during the learning curve as they grow and develop.

At center, 7'1" redshirt freshman Solomon Alabi, from Montverde Academy right here in Orlando, is beginning to show signs of an extremely bright future. Dare I say but I have thought of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at times watching him. He has surprising range and a great touch shooting the ball.

FSU could be a major surprise going forward to those not in the know. You are no longer among that group.

BAHL's Babes: Krista Allen

A former Miss Texas and University of Texas graduate, it was in the Emmanuelle series where we were first treated to the amazing beauty of Krista Allen.

The big break for Allen, and where I first became of aware of her, was here performance as Billie Reed on NBC's Days of Our Lives. Since then, she has been spotted in various television shows including The X-Files, Smallville, CSI, Friends and had a two year stint on Baywatch.

Allen has appeared in Stuff and Maxim Magazines and was named among Maxim's Hot 100 of 2005.

Krista, a tall drink of water at just over 5' 7'', has appeared in many movies including Anger Management, Totally Blond and a notable elevator scene from Liar Liar.












On the rise to stardom, Krista did do some softcore X stuff during the Emmanuelle movies which is probably the only thing holding her back from being a real big star, who knows? Anyhow, she is the total package combining beauty with brains, and even owns her own clothing company.

It is after the first of the year and many of us need to drop a few and are looking to get in better shape. Good thing for us Krista has a workout video to help us which you may want to check out.

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Miracle on the Hudson River Line

ALERT: ALL PASSENGERS SURVIVED, NO MAJOR INJURIES

A flock of geese! Are you kidding me? The astounding professionalism and heroic actions of the US Airways (LCC:NYSE) flight crew which led to all the passengers surviving this plane crash into the Hudson River is so miraculous, it could well signal the bottom of the stock market!

Without the tumultuous events of a plane crash, I have been out on the Hudson River on the Circle Line Tour on 20-30 degree days with strong winds and believe me, it must have been extremely difficult for the passengers as they exited. If I had survived this event, it would be my pleasure to swim 200IM's out there until the cows come home, frigid and all, before grabbing cold one or twelve from the lovely Elisha at The Playright Tavern Act II.

As most Americans, I have a tremendous amount of respect and appreciation for the fine professionals of the NYPD, FDNY and the NYPA. But as these governmental agencies were quickly responding, and hair on fire quick they were, the US Airways crew, the passengers who kept their heads under extreme crisis, the NY Waterway ferry operators and the Circle Line Tour ferry operators participated in an excellent textbook evacuation and rescue, a team effort which make all Americans very proud.


I am petrified to fly and need flight fuel in the form of several tall cool ones in pre-flight preparation. Outside of an experience on a TWA puddle jumper from St. Louis to Lincoln back in 1980, I have had really good experiences flying, on JetBlue (JBLU:NASDAQ) and Southwest (LUV:NYSE). Given the actions demonstrated by this crew averting a major disaster this afternoon, I would appreciate the opportunity to fly US Airways. By the way, no one should even dream of filing a lawsuit due to today's crash against US Airways.

I look forward to meeting via the media many of heroes who helped out during today's miracle on the Hudson River line. God Bless America, and, as usual, today I know He did.

Monday, January 12, 2009

Whatever It Takes

The blockbuster FOX series 24 returned in high definition last night for it's seventh gripping season. The series centers around counter terrorism agent Jack Bauer, a member of a counter terrorism unit whose main goal is to defeat terrorists that aim to kill freedom loving American citizens.

Of particular note this season is drama found right out of the gate in episode 1, with Jack Bauer testifying before Congress as he is being brought up on charges of torturing a captive. Please take a view of the opening of this episode, which shows both how lethal the terrorists are and the grilling of Mr. Bauer (2:15 mark) before a congressional panel:



President Bush is routinely hammered for potentially using torture to gather information to keep us safe. I think most on the left, from the pundits to the media members who hammer Bush on this are naive at best. They continue to think appeasement is the avenue of choice. Even some of the cast members agree:

Tony Ward winner Cherry Jones (loved her in Doubt, just fabulous), who plays President Alison Taylor, finds the torture thing "unfortunate" and commented on perceived commonalities with the show and reality by stating her character is "very committed to restoring stability in this country and also the country's reputation around the world, not unlike where we are now."

Left wing activist/loon/actress Janeane Garofalo, who plays an FBI agent this season (to select this marginally talented nutjob with the amount of talented starving actors at the producers disposal, including my wife, fresh from her performance in Passenger 57, is concerning), could hardly wait to offer her nonsense. "That our own administration borrowed ideas from 24 is such a tragedy." She finds torture "reprehensible". On the face of it, so does every sound thinking individual.

But as Bauer offers up in his testimony, "For a combat soldier the difference between success and failure is your ability to adapt to your enemy. The people that I deal with, they don't care about your rules. All they care about is a result. My job is to stop them from accomplishing their objectives. I simply adapt it. In answer to your question, am I above the law? No, sir. I am more than willing to be judged by the people you claim to represent. I will let them decide what price I should pay. Now please do not sit there with that smug look on your face and expect me to regret the decisions that I have made because, sir, the truth is I don't."

And for me, refrain from torture whenever possible, particularly concerning forces from another country. But if you got KSM on the ropes or any other rogue terrorists planning to execute horror on the United States, I am hopeful our armed forces employ and activate a stable full of Jack Bauers. To save a nuclear attack on Houston or prohibit drinking water systems from being infected in the northwest, leave no stone unturned or kneecap unshattered! Whatever it Takes!

Sunday, January 11, 2009

"The Strike"

The fallout from the financial crisis has left many of us unhinged as economic truths we subscribe to have been violated all over the place. President-elect Barack Obama's chief of staff designate Rahm Emanuel opined he did not want the current finacial crisis to "go to waste" as he signaled that it represented an opportunity for massive governmental intrusion into the private sector and the lives of our citizens for our benefit.

It is clear that the hope and change mindset entering Washington strongly feels that government should be further dictating the commerce of the private sector through new programs and regulation. Wall Street Journal senior economics writer and editorial board member Steve Moore reflected back to the Ayn Rand novel Atlas Shrugged in his recent column in the WSJ 'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years and suggests the fictional tale is becoming fact, and this is not a welcomed development.

Moore is right on target drawing on the similarities of recent governmental actions and those forecasted to emerge and/or expand to the goings on, or "lunacy", in the classic novel.

Most, if not all, of the current issues we are dealing with were due to poorly constructed governmental influence, from the housing crisis to the lack of a sensible energy policy. Now, as Rahm Emanual indicated, more governmental programs will be initiated and thus will be doomed to create even more issues down the road.

I wonder if the non productive leeches John Galt speaks of in the book are representative of the same folks who do not pay taxes that are primed to get money back from the government in Obama's stimulus package. Recall Peggy Joseph?

This ain't gonna work, and for a preview, just grab the 1000 page classic and have at it. Too long for you, read Moore's column.

The Pounding of Palin Continues

The actions of the media these days is mind boggling, and in my view, extremely detrimental to our country. While untold shenanigans were taking place in Chicago, droves of media were scouring Alaska searching for dirt on Sarah Palin. You might conclude that since the election is over and with the political turmoil in Obama's home base of Chicago, that throwing Sarah Palin under the bus would grow old. You would be wrong. Insane accusations about her family continue to be investigated, and she continues to be attacked.

During the campaign, the media scolded us about how inexperienced Palin is, although as a sitting Governor and former Mayor she is more experienced than President Select Obama, or Caroline Kennedy for that matter. The relentless attacking of Palin by the media and other pundits indicates to me they are very afraid of her.

Palin has decided to speak out, and many think it is a bad move, including outlets on the right. I think it is wise to for her to be on the record and for her to call out the media on the vicious way they treated her and their love affair with Obama. I am looking forward to Bernie Goldberg's new book on the subject. Voices in this regard are very important, as apparently, few folks care or they are to stupid to recognize how the media is leading them. Speaking of media influence, I can't wait to hear how the economic news is turning brighter on January 21st.

Take a listen to Palin's comments:

Saturday, January 10, 2009

Top 25

College Football

2008 Final Top 25

1. Florida 13-1, 2
2. Utah 13-0, 6
3. Southern Cal 12-1, 5
4. Texas 12-1, 3
5. Oklahoma 12-2, 1
6. Alabama 12-2, 4
7. Texas Christian 11-2, 12
8. Penn State 11-2, 8
9. Ohio State 10-3, 10
10. Oregon 10-3, 20
11. Texas Tech 11-2, 7
12. Georgia 10-3, 15
13. Virginia Tech 10-4, 17
14. Mississippi 10-4, 18
15. Boise State 12-1, 9
16. Cincinnati 11-3, 13
17. Oklahoma State 9-4, 11
18. Missouri 10-4, 19
19. Florida State 9-4, 23
20. Nebraska 9-4, 22
21. Iowa 9-4, NR
22. Georgia Tech 9-4, 14
23. Oregon State 9-4, NR
24. Brigham Young 10-3, 16
25. Michigan State 9-4, NR

OUT: Ball State, Boston College and Pittsburgh.

VOTES: Northwestern, Pittsburgh, Louisiana State, Rutgers, California, Tulsa, Vanderbilt, West Virginia, Boston College, North Carolina and Ball State.

It was a very interesting year, culminating with Florida (dadgumit!) defeating Oklahoma for the national title. Utah, Alabama and Mississippi were among the teams which were better than I expected, with LSU, Missouri and Georgia really disappointing.

Saturday, January 3, 2009

No Room For Error In Skies

Political correctness is way out of hand and it just pisses me off. Orlando based Air Tran Airways is in defense mode and issuing apologies (?) after it tossed a group of Muslim passengers off a jet bound for Orlando from Washington DC. Other passengers reported they had heard members of this party make suspicious remarks about airline safety. Air Tran is getting hammered by most media outlets, but not here!

Call me crazy, but that sound like damn prudent thinking to me. I got a news flash for you. If you are part of a group of Muslim airline passengers acting odd, you may want to keep the pie hole shut, cause we are going to be quick to pull the trigger on your ass, given some developments earlier this decade. This also includes members of bands and wedding party guests, who miraculously always seem to be in the wrong place when tomahawks come flying. And if you don't like it, we may have to slap you around some. Don't think we won't!!

We are in a global war on terror and we are not going to put up with any crap from Muslims, white supremacists, the Macon County Garden Club, Imams, the Detroit Lions, the South Boston Glee Club or any other group who acts likes asses when boarding airplanes. This should be well recognized and all airline travelers should be on their best behavior. If not, you should be tossed as there is zero room for error in this regard.

Friday, January 2, 2009

Bo Knows

A fun time was had ringing in the New Year in Jacksonville for the Konica Minolta Gator Bowl as Nebraska took on Clemson. Our events New Years Eve began at The Jacksonville Landing for a Nebraska pep rally and ended at the Wild Wings in Southside. It was not pretty.









Pregame was great as we partied with Lil Red prior to getting settled in for the game. Lincoln's Nebraska Dave was ready for game action, complete with his own head gear.











The Blackshirts kept the 'Huskers in it early as The Big Red made some critical errors. Nebraska DT Ndamukong Suh owned the line of scrimmage. The Blackshirts were horrible in 2007, but under the Pelini brothers they were real strong down the stretch, including in the Gator Bowl, where they limited Clemson to 4 yards rushing.

Behind the strong running of Quentin Castille, the 'Huskers claimed the lead and held on to defeat Clemson 26-21. Quarterback Joe Ganz, pictured below directing the attack in the red zone early in the quarter 4, shook off a poor first half and lead Nebraska to victory.

Nebraska finished 9-4, faring much better than most thought. Congratulations to the 'Huskers and what a great job Coach Pelini and staff did this year. The future looks bright. Go Big Red!