Global Economic Cooling?

There are socialists among us who wish to shackle capitalism, break the entrepreneurial spirit and replace normal free and efficient market action with governmental regulation and interference.

And one is running for President and comes with a sidekick.

Today, Bill Clinton pontificated on global warming and forecasted the dismal future we are destined for should his husband be elected President.

"Everybody knows that global warming is real, but we cannot solve it alone" said Clinton. “We just have to slow down our economy and cut back our greenhouse gas emissions 'cause we have to save the planet for our grandchildren."

Actually, we do not know that it is real. We have limited history to judge by (those thermometers in 1743 worked oh so well). If south Florida is going to be sunk in a decade as Nobel Peace Prize winner Al Gore boasted in his spoof of a movie, I will gladly purchase property along the Inter-coastal Waterway in Dade and Broward counties for dimes on the dollar. Just give me a call.


Supposing it is real, the last thing we want is for government regulation and taxation to try to attack the proposed problem with ideas that likely will be monetarily costly, will not work, will cause more problems and could potentially be environmentally harmful.

Slowing down our economy for a questionable ideology while pouring money at it is a slap in the face to the hard working, tax paying US citizens. Slowing down our economy is opposite of what should be done. It does represent a socialist line of thinking, where government curtails free market activity because it thinks it knows better.

Solutions are simple, as long as you are not saddled with an agenda. Increase nuclear energy for starters, drill for oil along our own coasts where other countries are, seek out alternative energy through the free market (potential investment opportunities on Wall and Broad here!) and continue to enforce already placed laws which curb us against unnecessary pollution.

I’ll fill my Chevrolet Trailblazer with UNOCAL 93 octane tomorrow!

Main Street vs. Wall Street

The FED will on Wednesday announce if any adjustments to the FED Funds Rate have been made as their meeting concludes.

Among what I believe are the only two options on the table, there is conflicting information about which direction is best.

The durable goods number was good and indicates that we are not in recession, which would lead the FED to only reduce the rate by .25 basis points. Although the jobs number was worse than expected when released a few weeks back, it is at a historically good level. The job number is very important and any further rising of this number could spell trouble. Jobless claims will be released Friday morning, and a surprise to the upside could give us a follow through day indicating a move from market correction to market rally mode.

We do have an inverted yield curve and this suggests a .50 basis point cut. It would seem the bond traders and most everyone else has factored that in already. Therefore, anything short of that would disappoint the street and that could send the DOW lower. Should the DOW turn lower with authority, we could drop to a level near 11000, where the next major level of resistance is located.

I would have to side on a .50 basis point reduction but I am starting to think the worst is behind us. As soon as a major financial institution can specifically say how much they have lost in this subprime mess, we can forecast the losses and move forward. Pessimism is rampant, and that when I like it.

Relative strength for stocks when the market is in a downtrend is most telling.

NOTE: VIVO CHART AVAILABLE VIA YAHOO.COM

One stock that has caught my eye in this regard is Meridian Bioscience (VIVO:NASDAQ), whose chart is shown above. This is a prior holding of mine and it keeps showing up as I scan the market for potential winners.

Since I do not know what I am having for lunch tomorrow, I may not be able to forecast VIVO will continue to perform well, but so far so good. Once the bell rings, market action could and will dictate investing adjustments.

Get the Led out!

Hammer of the Gods!!!

Jimmy Page announced that Zeppelin may be hitting the road in September. John Paul Jones and Robert Plant would join Page along with Jason Bonham. Page indicated he is ready to go. Plant has commitments until September.

I'm no traveler of time or space, but if Zeppelin is touring, count me in!

Stand On It!

The excitement is building as we get set to drop the flag on the 50th running of The Great American Race, the Daytona 500, three weeks from today. Speedweeks is fantastic, and the best event might just be the Gatorade Duel at Daytona, formerly referred to as the Twins. I can't wait

I am somewhat sad that I will no longer be supporting one of my favorite drivers, Tony Stewart. He is the best driver out there but his team, Joe Gibbs Racing, made the off season switch from GM backed Chevrolet to Toyota. It was one thing when Gibbs jumped from Pontiac to Chevrolet, but BAHL does not do Toyota. Pictured below is The Heartbeat of America!



NOTE: I AM A SHAREHOLDER OF INTERNATIONAL SPEEDWAY CORPORATION (ISCA:NASDAQ).

Rudy 2008

We have received a wake up call from hell. Now the question is simple: Do we rally to defeat this evil, while there is still time, or do we press a collective snooze button and go back to business as usual? The time for action is now. Today the terrorists have the will to destroy us, but they do not have the power. There is no doubt that we have the power to crush them. Now we must also show that we have the will to do just that. Once any part of the terror network acquires nuclear weapons, this equation will fundamentally change, and with it the course of human affairs. This is the historical imperative that now confronts all of us. ----------Benjamin Netanyahu 9-20-2001

As I evaluate my selection for President in the Republican Primary, the above quote from Benjamin Netanyahu figures prominently in my mind. I have always stood firmly against one issue voters, but
if these Islamic terrorists get the upper hand, balancing the budget won't matter a whole lot.

With this in mind, and for a variety of reasons, my choice is Rudy Giuliani. Rudy obviously understands the the importance of protecting this nation from the Islamic terrorists or any other nations or groups which will harm on us. I am looking for someone who is on offense in this regard and Rudy is.

Giuliani is also a supply side economic thinker. He has a proven record of fiscal conservative governance, complete with lower taxes, reducing the size of government while increasing it's efficiency, creating jobs and growing the economy.

Rudy has demonstrated his ability in problem solving, as evidenced by his record in New York City. Although he has vast experience in
government, he would be a breath of fresh air in Washington.

Certainly, like anyone else, Rudy is not free from professional and personal setbacks. Unlike many, he holds himself accountable for those and learns from these lessens. I am looking for someone with accountability.

I find many attributes of some of the competing candidates outstanding. At the end of the day, I find Rudolph Giuliani best suits my objectives and he has my support.

'Huskers Restore The Order With Pelini Hiring

<After dismissing Head Coach Frank Solich, who had been associated with Nebraska since his playing days in the mid 60's, at the conclusion of the regular season in 2003, AD Steve Pederson passed over an outstanding young defensive coordinator in Mark "Bo" Pelini to hire someone to keep Nebraska from falling to mediocrity.

The program was slipping a bit under Solich, but it did not seem prudent to fire him unless you had someone "special" in line. AD Steve Pederson did not have such a person, and spent several weeks on a rather embarrassing tour of regional airports throughout the Ozarks. He then settled on former Oakland Raider Coach Bill Callahan.

Callahan runs a sophisticated and successful version of the west coast offense and he brought that to Lincoln. He seems like a nice guy, although he appeared more interested in out play calling opponents rather than adopting what the Nebraska football philosophies and program mean to the state. He discounted the famous walk-on program, stiff armed 'Husker lore and former players and never made real attempts to engage the faithful. Under Callahan in 2007, several records which have stood my whole life fell by the side like shanked punts. This was most disturbing, and he is thankfully gone. He will no doubt be an outstanding NFL offensive coordinator.

Football is more mental than most folks realize, particularly old school Nebraska football. The 'Huskers played themselves more than their opponents over the years, focusing on striving for perfect execution which in turn led to victories. Hundreds and hundreds of them. It was about relationships and trust, then championships.

Legendary Coach Tom Osborne came back to become the new AD, and now we know why fate left him with a loss in his last election effort. We trusted him to make things right again, to help rebuild what he helped build. Again, he did not let us down.

One of the candidates to become head coach was former 'Husker great Turner Gill. An electric football player, outstanding baseball player and football coach, Gill is even a better person. Although he is tight with Dr. Tom, it was not his time, and he recently got a well deserved extension to his contract at Buffalo. Gill is a Cornhusker.

The Nebraska faithful knew where to find the person we were looking for, and were at the time Pederson went searching. That person is Bo Pelini. He is a players coach, understands the value of relationships and trust with the players and realizes the value in the heart of Nebraska faithful across the country.

Pelini did not take the Nebraska job for a pay increase. Although he is
a fierce competitor and no doubt wishes to progress to from a defensive
coordinator to a head coach, Pelini actually wanted to come to Nebraska.
We wanted him to come back to Nebraska. We wish he had never left.

Welcome back Bo! Good Luck and Go Big Red!!!!

Message of the Markets

Make no mistake. We are currently in a bear market for stocks. While the US Markets were closed as we celebrate the Martin Luther King holiday, indicies abroad sold off Monday and indicate a potentially brutal day at the corner of Wall and Broad Tuesday. While stimulus plans being thrown around seem to the average observer as good, the fact is this type of plan is a band-aid at best. We need macro changes, starting with lowering the corporate tax rate and extending the Bush tax cuts. Contrary to belief, reducing the tax burdens on corporations allow them to expand in areas from research and development to the hiring of additional employees while increasing output. Where is Art Laffer when you need him?

The FED needs a .50 basis point cut like yesterday and should assert themselves to be anticipating the problems and not reacting to them.

Lets look at the sub prime crisis, which has exposed many companies lack of forecasting ability. Extremely low interest rates in the aftermath of the events of September, 11, 2001 (remember those) precipitated a historic rise in the average value of existing homes. Values were far above the historical moving average, and this is where risk increases. Values essentially doubled in half a decade and all the homebuilders lined up to get their share, ignoring or lightly weighing the above mentioned risks. The party ended and several had lampshades on their head when the lights came on. We are now digesting the excesses, or have a hangover if you will. This takes time. Regression to the mean, which would be an average appreciation of about 6% a year, suggests that home prices could retract over 50% from here and the gains would still be substantially above the normal appreciation. The same would be investors who quit their jobs to trade stocks in 2000 are the same would be investors in trouble now having pretended to be realtor and appraiser.

Want a time frame for the hangover? Perhaps the chart below offers a clue!