Soviets Should Stand Down

The events over last week with Russia entering and occupying (deadlines of their departure continue to expire) Georgia are particularly troubling, and I feel it is an early chapter in story of very serious impending military issues. Georgian President and US educated Mikheil Saakasvili has been a longtime friend and ally to the United States of America

Going back decades, any skirmish we have been involved in has prompted a cry from the left that we are in the mode of “war for oil”. This conflict, ladies and gentleman, is all about oil.

Russia, a country driven by commodities, has benefited nicely over the last several years as oil has strongly ascended. Vladimir Putin and company have stood steadfast with Iran, who they couple with to sell oil to the west, particularly Europe.

A competing pipeline called the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC), partially owned by British Petroleum, which just happens to go right through Georgia is set to undermine along with the South Caucasus pipeline the control Russia has over Europe by competing globally as a supplier from the Caspian Sea. Putin seized control of Russia's private oil companies by eliminating (yes, club mud) the CEO’s of the privately held oil firms and nationalizing most if not all of them. The poisoning of public critics took place also.

With oil prices, which were very extended, receding sharply, Russia envisioned double trouble for the nice income stream which they have developed. A scare issued to the Ukraine a couple years back, something about a power disruption, apparently did not spook the west enough.

With their backs against the wall, perceived US weakness with economic woes, altercations on two fronts amongst public discontent and a very weak new leader as the odds on favorite to become President, and with little ways to increase the Russian income streams elsewhere, Russia took the option of an eye opening strike against Georgia. As good of chess players as there are over there, this short term perceived victory and brushing off of western powers requests regarding retreat will likely backfire long term.
Former? Russian Presdient and KGB agent Vladimir Putin has become untrustworthy and has damaged his credibility

President Bush has bent over backwards in an effort to welcome Vladimir Putin and the Russians to the world table, with his commentary about seeing his soul as a steering mechanism to lead him. Unfortunately, when cash issues come calling, relationships often dismantle.

Russia offered that sides must be chosen, and alliances are emerging. Russia is with their financial partner Iran while the Ukraine, Georgia and Poland have signed on with Europe and the US.

It is the Russian alliance with Iran that is the major issue. While it may be financial at birth, when coupled with Iran failing to adhere to pressure to stop with it’s nuclear ambitions, this is most dangerous. As suspected, the rhetoric of Iran will likely leave Israel no choice but to engage Iran, and the Soviets should indeed stand down if such action takes place.

If not, it will likely forge even further resistance to Russia and Iran with new partnerships formed and global conflict that will not benefit anyone. As the Russian stock market continues to drop as current and potential investors rate the geopolitical costs as too high, Russia should remember that the US, even with all our issues, is a world financial juggernaught that can easily cripple global economies not withstanding the might of our Armed Forces.

A new Warsaw Pact? Sudetenland 1938? And the Global War on Terror. This is hardly time for a neophyte community organizer in my opinion. Someone familiar with the fire would be best! Georgian supporter and Republican Presdiential nominee John McCain (R-AZ) speaks to VFW in Orlando, Florida on August 18, 2008.

As always, your comments are welcomed and encouraged!