Locked Out

Unless you are a die hard progressive, the news is all bad at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. No time like the present to have a mainstream media arm of the administration come out with some good news to reinforce the public on the strength of the messiah, President Obama.

Politics Daily, a lefty Internet operation of AOL, presented the findings of a study by American University by Professor Allan Licthman. Lichtman had put together a formula to judge the outcome of the popular vote in our Presidential elections. This formula is based on thirteen factors and indicates President Obama is "guaranteed" to win in 2012. Well, why even hold the 2012 Presidential election?

President Obama is quite familiar with American University, where the Liberal Lion Ted Kennedy endorsed his presidential campaign and where he spoke at earlier last month, calling for comprehensive immigration reform.

Just for the fun of it, I am going to review each key and its commentary.

Outlining the Keys:

•KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (FALSE)

FALSE. A no brainer here. November will be a historical bloodbath for the Democrats.

• KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (TRUE)

I am going to go with false FALSE on this one. With the implosion of the Obama administration, Hillary, who is on a time table, is lurking in the shadows.

• KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (TRUE)

I'll go with TRUE. However, the possibility of Obama resigning is very small, but it is higher than you think percentage wise.

• KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third party or independent campaign. (TRUE)

Again, this is TRUE as we sit here today. However, if the Republican Party does not embrace the Tea Party, and given recent comments by former Senator Trent Lott (R:MS) that is in question, the Tea Party could emerge as a third party.

• KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. (TRUE)

Given the policies implemented by Obama, the economy will continue to be very poor. Obama is hammering small business, raising taxes and uncertainty and increasing regulation. Should the Republicans gain control in the Congress and thwart some of Obama's policies, things could get better but the housing overhang will still remain. The country may not technically be in recession, but it sure will feel like it. So, FALSE.

• KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. (FALSE)

FALSE. Not even close. Although Obama says the worst is past us, it is not.

• KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy. (TRUE)

FALSE. Well, actual fact Obama has. The healthcare bill passed, and while he thinks this is a success, the actions taken to get the bill passed were borderline unethical and were against the will of the American people by any reasonable poll looked at. Obama also insists on an energy policy Americans are against and looks to be backdooring an amnesty policy for illegal immigrants, another move agsint the wind of the people.

So, it is technically true but will be seen as false.

• KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term. (TRUE)

FALSE. Have you seen what is going on in Greece? Well, it is coming here. Furthermore, a few arms of the administration, ACORN, the NAACP and SEIU, are already creating disturbances all over the place.

Right out of the Cloward and Piven playbook,the system is being overwhelmed which leads to civil unrest, opening the door for the public to crave someone to fix the problem. The plan is for this to be the government, who created the problem to start with.

• KEY 9 (Scandal): The administration is untainted by major scandal. (TRUE)

FALSE. There are several scandals out there, and some, including ACORN voter fraud, already exposed. There are other potential scandals out there, including Fannie Mae, Shore Bank and the failure to secure the oil leak. Also, there may be more to this Shirley Sherrod story than first thought.

• KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (TRUE)

FALSE. The apology tour Obama continues on is disgraceful. While he is taking credit for the success in Iraq, which is appalling given he opposed the effort every step of the way, Afghanistan is not going well under his leadership and Iran, the head of the snake, getting nuclear weapons is a major problem, one Obama does not appear engaged on.

• KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (FALSE)

I am in agreement here, FALSE. Obama is waffling hard on all foreign policy fronts. Iran is a major issue, and while Obama votes present, Israel may take the lead and Obama will look, and is, weak and it will be obvious to anyone.

• KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (FALSE)

This is TRUE. While Obama is about the farthest from a national hero of any of our Presidents, he is charismatic to most of the populous. I find him arrogant and thin skinned, but most Americans like him personally although they are beginning to hate his policies.

• KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (TRUE)

FALSE. Define charisma. Mitt Romney and his economic background could sound like sweet music to the masses by the time the election roles around. Sarah Palin is charming and does represent a common sense perspective Americans are thirsty for. Newt Gingrich has a historical perspective that engages many and Mike Huckabee is quite likeable. And then there is Chris Christie!

I think Foghorn Leghorn will look solid when compared to Obama by then.

When five or fewer of the "keys" are false, the incumbent President wins. The writer has four for Obama, signaling a win. I have ten false, which means Obama is sent packing.

For the sake of our country, this cannot happen soon enough.