Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Credit Required
Principal in any economic rebound is the stabilization and return to normal market conditions of the residential real estate market, which translates into consumer net worth. The consumer will need bargaining power and lines of credit to work with to help combat the downward pressure in the marketplace, and obviously the current credit issues have those outlets dramatically weakened if not closed.
Due to incredible mismanagement, improper regression analysis or whatever chisanbop mathematical calculation run amuck, the banks inability to estimate the damage on their balance sheets has led them to proceed to squeeze the consumers by raising credit card rates, denying new credit, freezing or closing previously agreed upon credit lines and tightening mortgage lending requirements.
FOX Business Alexis Glick discussed with Spencer Rascoff of Zillow.com and Chip Cummings of Northland Financial Corporation how the congressional Bill may impact housing and therefore the economy as a whole. Take a listen.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Fools on the Hill
As far as the Bill itself, I am quite torn on it as it goes against my beliefs on how a capitalist system should operate, but I do recognize the role of Government in emergency situations, which due to the current locking of credit, it appears we are in. I subscribe to the Kudlow creed that "free market capitalism is the best path to prosperity".
Setting a fine example was Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D:NV), who on Friday got out three sentences before bashing President Bush, while CNBC's John Harwood, not that the media could be left out of Bush bashing, keeps praising Obama and bashing McCain, with his cheerleading substituting for empirical evidence. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi (D:CA) unleashed levels of partisanship rarely seen during a time of crisis, cementing her lack of leadership skills.
Quite obviously, there is bipartisan blame for this debacle, and regrettably, President Bush does not escape it. But a closer look at the players is needed at this time as election decisions are made. Since the media won't keep you up to speed, here is some evidence for your review on who the responsible parties are in this mess.
Over the next week, I will be calling out the culprits. In the meantime, chief among those who need to resign immediately is Rep Barney Frank (D:MA), Chair of the House Financial Services Committee. Before I get around to torching him, it should be known that due to a religious holiday for him on Tuesday, he will not be available for the peoples work even as we supposedly face a crisis of generational and catastrophic proportions. Just great, I am not available and call me if you need me! What leadership!
Top 25
College Football Top 25
1. Missouri 4-0, 3
2. Oklahoma 4-0, 4
3. Alabama 5-0, 11
4. LSU 4-0, 6
5. Texas 4-0, 7
6. Penn State 5-0, 12
7. Texas Tech 4-0, 9
8. Brigham Young 4-0, 10
9. Southern Cal 2-1, 1
10. Georgia 4-1, 2
11. Florida 3-1, 5
12. South Florida 5-0, 15
13. Auburn 4-1, 13
14. Ohio State 4-1, 14
15. Kansas 3-1, 19
16. Oklahoma State 4-0, 20
17. Utah 5-0, 21
18. Boise State 3-0, 22
19. Wisconsin 3-1, 8
20. Fresno State 3-1, 23
21. Virginia Tech 4-1, NR
22. Oregon 4-1, NR
23. Vanderbilt 4-0, NR
24. Wake Forest 3-1, 16
25. Florida State 3-1, NR
OUT: Nebraska, Texas Christian, Illinois and Colorado
VOTES: Ball State, Nebraska, North Carolina, Kentucky, Michigan State, Maryland.
I got to thinking I was drinking the Kool-Aid with respect to my teams, Florida State and Nebraska, in thinking they would perform better than they are. Then I found that along with many other pollsters, there are several teams who are operating below expectations. Southern Cal, although I did caution about a sleepwalking game for them, Georgia, Illinois, Ohio State and Florida are others I thought would be better. Wisconsin really hit the wall letting Michigan come back on them.....Navy caught Wake Forest off guard, which is surprising for a Jim Grobe team....Ole Miss has given Florida trouble in Oxford but to win at The Swamp is startling....I could not believe Alabama took Georgia to the woodshed at Athens they way they did....Penn State seems much better than anticipated...FSU at Miami this weekend and few people are interested. The Seminoles can play some defense and had a glimpse of a running game vs. Colorado, certainly a quality team and one who faces the 'Horns this weekend. (Photo by Doug Benc/Getty Images)
The Orlando Sentinel, a full fledged Gator paper, remarked how Wake Forest losing to Navy really made Florida State's loss to Wake look bad. Well, since Wake took out Ole Miss in week 2, how is Florida's home loss to the Rebels looking? It is amazing how you overlook these things when your team is involved. With that in mind, I think FSU beats Miami but Nebraska will get killed by Missouri.
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Country First
A "financial crisis as serious as any we have faced since the Great Depression" is not enough to bring the novice Senator from Illinois away from his politicking to respond to a generational crisis, which demostrates his poor leadership and judgement.
This represents change you don't want and leadership you obviously cannot count on! Country First actions seem appropriate!
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
A Command of the Facts
Oh good heavens!!! I would think a member of a Democratic Party ticket running for the President of the United States would have a working knowledge of the Great Depression, one of our country's darkest periods.
Perhaps someone should fire a copy of The Forgotten Man by Amity Sclaes at him. Unfortunately, since the book is not advertised on television, Biden may not know it exists.
That type of political leadership Biden describes is available this year at the presidential level, and it can be found with John McCain.
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Berkshire Makes Goldman Investment
Amongst all the carnage on Wall Street, someone with a high level of credibility has now taken stake in a financial firm, giving indication of value at levels in this vicinity. Potentially, other investors previously gripped by fear can gain confidence and make investments, something the market needs to have any chance of moving higher.
Leadership in equities and individual fortitude is practically non existent in this environment, but now comes the Oracle of Omaha. From his desk in downtown Omaha, perhaps Warren Buffett has given us, and the market, that leadership.
Buffett will be on Squawk Box on CNBC with Becky Quick Wednesday morning at 8AM. You know where to find me!
I AM CURRENTLY A SHAREHOLDER OF COCA COLA AND BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY CL B
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Top 25
1. Southern Cal 2-0, 1
2. Georgia 4-0, 2
3. Missouri 4-0, 3
4. Oklahoma 3-0, 4
5. Florida 3-0, 5
6. LSU 3-0, 6
7. Texas 3-0, 7
8. Wisconsin, 3-0, 8
9. Texas Tech 4-0, 9
10. Brigham Young 3-0, 10
11. Alabama 4-0, 13
12. Penn State 4-0, 15
13. Auburn 3-1, 12
14. Ohio State 3-1, 14
15. South Florida 4-0, 17
16. Wake Forest 3-0, 23
17. Illinois 2-1, 19
18. Nebraska 3-0, 20
19. Kansas 3-1, 21
20. Oklahoma State 3-0, 22
21. Utah 4-0, 25
22. Boise State 3-0, NR
23. Fresno State 3-1, 24
24. Texas Christian 4-0, NR
25. Colorado 3-0 NR
OUT: Florida State, Oregon, East Carolina
VOTES: Vanderbilt, Clemson, Ball State, East Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Oregon.
Since escaping Washington, Brigham Young has been devastating and shutting out opponents…. Texas Christian looks good, but I doubt they can handle OU….Only at Mississippi State and FSU these days can you hold a ranked opponent without a touchdown and lose. The offense tossed out by Jimbo Fisher for the Seminoles was in fact offensive, and he better get something figured out quick or Bobby may just outlast Jimbo!.....LSU gets it done again late versus Auburn…..Fulmer has got to go at Rocky Top as they are looking 1-3 in the eyeball……Boise State was impressive winning at Oregon, surviving a late rally….Alabama looks much improved and we will learn a lot as they play the Junkyard Dawgs on Saturday…..UNC would have beaten VT had they not lost their quarterback in the third quarter….South Carolina seems surprisingly to be grounded offensively….Did West Virginia make a bad coaching hire?.... Texas A&M should have never fired R. C. Slocum, for they are still being punished for that move.
If Jimbo Fisher needs a quarterback to go 12-36 with 5 INTS under the lights at Doak Campbell, I am ready, beer in hand!
Tuesday, September 16, 2008
No New Deal!
President Bush correctly claimed recently that Wall Street got drunk, and we are all living through the hangover. Over the years, firms such as E. F. Hutton and Kidder Peabody and hedge funds like Long Term Capital have bitten the dust. Now, it is Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. When you get overly greedy, you usually pay a heavy price.
As the negativity abounds, do not be fooled by those wanting to take this opportunity to grab more governmental influence on the free markets. The reform mechanisms, many of which have been in place since the 30's, are in need of reform as the architecture has not changed with the times. No new governmental guidance is needed or required. The free markets cleanse themselves, as you are currently witnessing.
Many of those offering commentary about a new great depression are those championing more governmental regulation and influence.
"The best view of big government is in the rear view mirror as we leave it behind" --Ronald Reagan, January 26, 1984.
Errors in thinking in this regard can be grave. Required reading on the lessons to be learned from the real Great Depression are told in The Forgotten Man, by Amity Shlaes. FOX Business's Stuart Varney interviewed MS. Shlaes today on what if any parallels exists. She cautions about many of the policies the Democrats claim are impending should they be elected. Let's make sure they are not!
Turn Off The Spigot
Monday, September 15, 2008
Wall Street Deleveraging
Compounding the negativity, top insurer American International Group (AIG:NYSE) is in a frantic search for capital as it scrambles to head off a downgrade, which would create a need for additional capital to match reserve requirements. In yet another unprecedented move, AIG has reportedly turned to the FED to inquire about the FED potentially bridging a loan from some private equity firms, of which KKR has been mentioned.
Lehman has been rumored to be teetering since the collapse of Bear Stearns. Since the FED’s moves after Bear, including opening up the discount window, one would think Lehman had ample opportunity to find a way out, potentially by attracting a buyer. Perhaps, after the Bear Stearns deal the FED orchestrated and the bailout of Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE) and Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE) due to implicit guarantees of the federal government, Lehman thought the FED would ultimately rescue them, but thankfully the FED drew a line in the sand here. Lehman had issues with their books as accurately indentified by David Einhorn of Greenlight Capital Management back in April, and this no doubt cautioned potenital investors.
The FED move with Bear Stearns can be argued, but I think the deal was a good one and did ease systemic risk and a potentially massive stock market selloff. Since then, through open market operations, the FED has been active in offering outlets for these firms to get assistance, even if there is a stigma associated with getting help at the discount window. Lehman failed to operate successfully during this time while the short selling vultures were swooping in and now is left without options.
Merrill, staring in the face of Lehman dying, was helped by the FED in realizing their days were numbered as the short sellers likely had Merrill in their sights. The FED dictated the sale to BAC at a premium per Merrill’s close on Friday, which is puzzling. Could a deal have been struck to not prosecute former Countrywide executives now part of BAC as part of the sub prime market collapse should BAC be of assistance here?
Although we have had some nice rallies, particularly a few months ago, we are still in a bear market and the financials are a complete disaster. Expect a very negative and volatile day on the corner of Wall and Broad as the market continues to wring out the excesses. It is possible capitulation could occur today for those following a technical analysis of the market. Short sellers, with their punching bag Lehman facing chapter 11, will no doubt look for their next target, which is likely Washington Mutual (WM:NYSE).
A consortium of securities firms and global banks have reportedly formed an alliance of some 70 billion to provide some sort of backstop as the unwinding and balancing of credit swaps today could be quite tricky with Lehman out. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pleaded with Wall Street to help their own, rather than the federal government doing it, and this is a step in that direction. It will limit the damage the short sellers can do if nothing else.
Although the housing crisis created by sub prime lending is the major catalyst to this downdraft, this has turned into a credit issue and a swift and smothering tightening of available consumer credit, thus contracting our consumer driven economy. Since over 50% of homes are owned outright and with over 92% of loans performing as instructed, it should be clear the banks overleveraged themselves through exotic mechanisms to squeeze out some extra cash while extending their leverage well beyond prudent levels. The most damaging aspect of this is that many of these institutions have no idea the level of losses on the balance sheet, and without that knowledge it is virtually impossible to accurately forecast the total losses or the length of the issues.
I welcome these poorly managed financial firms taking the hit. I do recognize the FED may have to act with taxpayer dollars, as they did with Fannie and Freddie, to prohibit far greater expenses and losses which could have a very serious effect on the overall economy.
We crank out dive bombing this morning at the bell, and although you should rarely fight the tape, I am not sure the financial wreckage has very much to do with the prospect of Coca Cola (KO:NYSE). Opportunities will exists that will require further review.
Sunday, September 14, 2008
Top 25
2. Georgia 3-0 1
3. Missouri 3-0 3
4. Oklahoma 3-0 4
5. Florida 2-0 5
6. LSU 2-0 7
7. Texas 2-0 8
8. Wisconsin 3-0 12
9. Texas Tech 3-0 10
10. Brigham Young 3-0 20
11. Florida State 2-0 14
12. Auburn 3-0 13
13. Alabama 3-0 15
14. Ohio State 2-1 6
15. Penn State 3-0 21
16. Oregon 3-0 16
17. South Florida 3-0 23
18. East Carolina 3-0 18
19. Illinois 2-1 17
20. Nebraska 3-0 22
21. Kansas 2-1 9
22. Oklahoma State 3-0 24
23. Wake Forest 2-0 NR
24. Fresno State 2-1 19
25. Utah 3-0 NR
OUT: UCLA and Arizona State
VOTES: Colorado, Clemson, West Virginia, Texas Christian, Vanderbilt, Ball State, North Carolina, Arizona State, Virginia Tech.
All the pundits feel Dennis Erickson is such a great coach, so while looking ahead to highly ranked Georgia, Arizona State drops a home contest to UNLV?......We all knew Ohio State would lose to USC, but that was a spanking…..Auburn is most fortunate they played a dismal offense or they would have a loss and may just get one versus LSU this weekend……Kansas and Fresno State dropped close hard fought games…..Since UCLA beat SEC power Tennessee, we certainly thought they could stack up with BYU. BYU snuck by Washington, a team OU throttled, and then bombarded UCLA 59-0. Can Tennessee be that bad?.......Oregon barely got by upstart Purdue……Florida State learns about themselves this week versus Wake Forest……Illinois seems to play to their competition……and finally, Syracuse needs to get a new coach.
BAHL's Babes: Vanessa Marcil
She has been featured in STUFF and Maxim magazines, being named among Maxim's 100 Hottest Women. Vanessa was also a regular on Beverly Hills 90210 and starred in the motion picture The Rock.
Marcil can be found playing Sam Marquez guarding The Montecito on NBC's Las Vegas.
Thursday, September 11, 2008
Have You Forgotten?
Below are a series of compiled news accounts from various media outlets as the events unfolded.
Here is a unique view taken from an apartment 36 floors up just northwest of the Twin Towers.
President George W. Bush, who spearheaded an offensive on the Islamic terrorists who orchestrated these attacks, speaks over footage from that dreadful day.
I fear many Americans have forgotten the evil of September 11, 2001 and have grown complacent since thankfully there have been no other significant domestic attacks. Have you forgotten?
Here is a photo I took at Ground Zero on December 9, 2001.
My prayers go out to the families of the victims of this tragedy as I remember them always. From the bartenders at The Greatest Bar on Earth no longer with us to my friends over at Suspenders and The Beekman Pub, the impact of this event will forever hang in our hearts. NEVER FORGET and God Bless America!
Tuesday, September 9, 2008
Still The Same
Top 25
1. Georgia 2-0 1
2. Southern Cal 1-0 2
3. Missouri 2-0 3
4. Oklahoma 2-0 4
5. Florida 2-0 5
6. Ohio State 2-0 6
7. LSU 1-0 7
8. Texas 2-0 8
9. Kansas 2-0 10
10. Texas Tech 2-0 11
11. Arizona State 2-0 12
12. Wisconsin 2-0 13
13. Auburn 2-0 14
14. Florida State 1-0 15
15. Alabama 2-0 16
16. Oregon 2-0 17
17. Illinois 1-1 18
18. East Carolina 2-0 NR
19. Fresno State 1-0 NR
20. Brigham Young 2-0 21
21. Penn State 2-0 NR
22. Nebraska 2-0 19
23. South Florida 2-0 22
24. Oklahoma State 2-0 24
25. UCLA 1-0 25
Tennessee, Clemson, Utah, Colorado, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and West Virginia.
Florida kicked a last second field goal to rub salt in the wounds of the Miami Hurricanes and 'Cane coach Randy Shannon was less than thrilled. What, classless Gators? Brigham Young got lucky as Washington got screwed on a celebration penalty. Ohio State looked awful and will get killed at USC playing like that. Texas A&M and Arkansas have been disasters to start the season. Michigan is not good, but here comes Notre Dame. State Penn is playing well so far while Nebraska is not. Many teams struggled with lesser opponents this weekend, but thankfully, one who did not was Florida State.
Friday, September 5, 2008
So Long Snowman
I became aware of Jerry from his guest star appearances on The Glen Campbell Goodtime Hour. Then he became legend in one of my all time favorite movies, portraying Cletus Snow (The Snowman) in Smokey and The Bandit. Reed also recorded the theme song, East Bound and Down, which is great interstate traveling music as I hold the hammer down on my Pontiac on I-75.
Reed was an extremely accomplished musician, but is better known for his hilarious antics with sidekick Burt Reynolds in a handful of these great car chase movies of the late '70's.
I could go on for days how funny these guys, along with The Great One, Jackie Gleason, were.
But, Hell I Got To Go!
The Nitally Lions
So you are a product of America's heartland in Big Ten country and you botch referencing Penn State while campaigning in Pennsylvania?
Does he think Joe Paterno is chairman of the Pennsylvania state library commission or even know who he is?
Will the Michigan State Wolverines be next?
Tip to Ace of Spades
Thursday, September 4, 2008
Ponder is Chief
Ponder has won a tight battle with Drew Weatherford (33 starts) and DVontrey Richardson for the job. All three signal callers rose to the occasion and performed well in fall camp.
The problem with Weatherford was a lack of aggressiveness against opposing defenses which led to a lack in offensive point production. This in turn put overwhelming pressure on the 'Noles defensive unit.
Ponder a great athlete possessing shifty footspeed, has a strong arm and is a quality decision maker. He has already graduated with a degree in finance.
As much as I appreciate Weatherford as a person and his accomplishments on the field, this is the direction FSU needs to go to get this team back to challenging for championships.
Wednesday, September 3, 2008
Condescending Arrogance at CNN
Brown is a graduate of Regis College with a degree in Political Science, which no doubt signifies her raised level of intelligence from the rest of us college graduates. Brown digs at Bounds for information regarding whether Palin possesses the foreign policy experience level needed should she be forced to ascend to the presidency. Of course, Browns candidate Obama can hardly challenge anyone on foreign policy experience since he has none.
Folks who used to rely on credible reporting without bias clearly can no longer look to CNN, as if they ever could, as this interview Brown conducted displays. She is apparently married to Dan Senor, a republican strategist. Senor should clue this arrogant chick in on the nasty direction this country is headed in if the novice socialist gets elected.
Furthermore, can anyone, including the "intelligent" new anchors attack Sarah Palin on the issues rather than her family issues? Or is that too daunting a task?
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Media Smear Merchants
The attacks on Palin and her family have been below the belt, no pun intended. Left wing blogs hosted by un-American idiots with little code of decorum and little to zero facts are running off at the typewriter while supposed reliable news outlets dart around reporting these issues acting if they are just reporting what is brewing out on the streets. Media outlets could not bring themselves to report on the shenanigans of Breck Boy John Edwards, a Presidential and Vice Presidential candidate while immediately addressing issues with Palin's family. The hypocrisy of it all is astounding!
The tide is about to turn on these hypocritical rumor mongers, including formerly well respected news outlets (yes, NYT, NBC and CNN with the attack piece put forth yesterday by Kyra Phillips, I am talking about you!). It will be a train wreck, and they can look right in the mirror when they ask themselves how they collapsed.
Top 25
- COLLEGE FOOTBALL TOP 25
- Georgia.........................1-0-0........1
- Southern Cal.................1-0-0........2
- Missouri........................1-0-0....... 3
- Oklahoma.....................1-0-0........4
- Florida..........................1-0-0........5
- Ohio State.....................1-0-0........6
- LSU...............................1-0-0........7
- Texas............................1-0-0........10
- West Virginia................1-0-0.........9
- Kansas..........................1-0-0.........11
- Texas Tech...................1-0-0........12
- Arizona State................1-0-0........13
- Wisconsin......................1-0-0........14
- Auburn..........................1-0-0........15
- Florida State.................0-0-0.......16
- Alabama........................1-0-0........NR
- Oregon...........................1-0-0........18
- Illinois............................0-1-0........17
- Nebraska........................1-0-0........21
- Wake Forest...................1-0-0.......22
- Brigham Young..............1-0-0........23
- South Florida..................1-0-0.......24
- Clemson...........................0-1-0........8
- Oklahoma State..............1-0-0.......25
- UCLA...............................1-0-0......NR
Bye Bye.......Tennessee and Virginia Tech
Close.....South Carolina, Fresno State, Utah, Colorado, Tennessee, East Carolina and Penn State.
Ace recruit Julio Jones helps Alabama dismantle pretender Clemson in Atlanta..........UCF is in need of quarterbacking help........Good to see Rick Neuhesiel get a W back with UCLA......Tennessee appears well coached.....As bad as the ACC was over the weekend, Maryland and North Carolina barely won their games......Dave Wannstedt is the coach at Pitt and Steve Pederson is the AD and they are both terrible.....Va Tech finally lost a game due to special teams play.....Michigan has a long road to travel.....La. Tech takes out another SEC foe in Miss. St......FAU mouthed off to Texas and took one upside the jaw......USC looked menacing pounding UVA .....I thought Mike Sherman was a bad hire at Texas A&M and they get stung at home by Arkansas State (Ouch), this while Arkansas snuck by Western Illinois.